August 7, 2008

DOES CORVALLIS, OREGON, NEED A LARGER SENIOR CENTER?

Summary and Conclusions

The Corvallis, Oregon, City Council put a bond measure on the November 2008 ballot to replace the current senior center with a larger senior center. However, Corvallis does not need a larger senior center. Using the 2007 Corvallis Citizen Attitude Survey (CCAS), the 2007 population data from the Portland State University Population Research Center (PSU-PRC), and the population forecast from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative Services (OEA-DAS) , I conclude the probability of Corvallis needing a larger senior center at this time is very small. The population of people between 55 and 65 has been noticeably growing in Corvallis; however, the people over 65 has been growing very slowly. Future growth appears to stabilize around 2020. Will the people in the prime of life -- 55 to 65 -- use the senior center? Will the people over 65 use the senior center? According to the popular press, the new crop of seniors, if they retire, will be busy self-actualizing. I doubt they will hang around the senior center. Moreover, there are other facilities in Corvallis that can be used for meetings. And, meeting space could be rented from the churches that are normally empty during the week. A larger senior center is not needed at this time and would be a waste of tax money.

Current Usage

The probability of the number of people using the senior center being higher than the seated capacity of 290 is very low as can be seen from the graph below.

The number of people using the center can be modeled with the binomial distribution -- one has either used, or not used, the senior center at least once within the last twelve months. That binomial distribution can be approximated with the normal distribution. The fraction of users by age group was estimated from the 2007 CCAS data. The numbers of people in each age group were obtained from the 2007 PSU-PRC population data. The means and variances for each group were summed to estimate the mean and variance of the total number of center users. (The mean, variance, and standard deviation of the total number of people using the center are 6754, 4985, and 71 respectively.) I then assumed that the "first"person used the center two to twenty hours per week, the "last" person used the center one hour per year, and everybody else could be arrayed in order of usage on an exponential curve between the first and last persons. I then divided the number of hours one used the center by the number of hours the center was open to obtain the probability that one was in the building. I then estimated the distribution of the number of people in the building with a monte carlo simulation. At any reasonable estimate of the number of hours per week (twelve or less), for fifty weeks, that the person using the center most would use the center, the probability of exceeding the seated capacity (290) is about 1% -- or less. If the maximum user uses the center twenty hours per week, there is virtually no chance that there is insufficient room for all users to stand (504). If I had subtracted the number of people who are younger than 55 from the number of people using the center the past year, the curves would all shift left decreasing the probability that the center would not have enough space. The number of hours that the center was open is the hours open for use by senior citizens. Had I added the hours open for the general population to the senior citizen hours, the curves would all shift to the left.

Population Growth

Using actual population data from PSU-PRC for Benton County, and adjusting it for the fraction of people in Corvallis, we can see the population trends in the people 55 and older. As can be seen from the graph below, the number of people between 55 and 65 -- the leading edge of the baby boom -- has been markedly increasing since 2004. If these people don't hang around the senior center as they grow older, our building a larger senior center is a waste of money.

Using projected population data from the OEA-DAS (released: April 2004) and adjusting it for the fraction of people in Corvallis, we can look at the long range population projections for Corvallis.

The 55 to 65 segment noticeably grows between now and 2015 and appears to be steady after that. The over 65 group noticeably grows until about 2025 and appears to be pretty steady after that. But will these people use the senior center in numbers justifying a large expenditure of tax money? Or would they, and younger people, rather spend their money on other things?

Available Space

A memorandum from the Director of Parks and Recreation to the Mayor and City Council, dated November 27, 2007, contained a table listing the room inventory of city-owned facilities available for public use and their usage between 8:00AM and 5:00PM. The table is recreated below.

Facility capacity and usage from 8:00AM to 5:00PM

Facility	Capacity	%currently used
Library - Main Room	120 seated/257 standing	36% used
Library - Board Room	20	15%
Library - Room A	10	7.5%
Parks & Recreation - Corl House	25	15.5%
P&R - Walnut Community Rm	72	15.25
P&R - Tunison Ctr.	90	59%
P&R - Senior Ctr.	290/504	72%

The larger rooms tend to be used more than the smaller rooms. However, there are more large rooms in Corvallis. The Majestic Theatre seats 300 and according to memorandum from the Finance Director to the Mayor and City Council dated December 12, 2007, the Theatre needs a subsidy from the tax payer of $31,000 for FY08-09. Since the taxpayer is supporting the Theatre, the spaces should be available for city use.

On UniqueVenues.com, Oregon State University advertises that it has 74 meeting and event rooms. The largest classroom being 500 and the largest theatre being 1200. The Corvallis High School has an auditorium that seats 600. And the Whitside Theatre, if it does become an entertainment venue, will seat 900 people.

In summary, there is plenty of space for meetings and events in Corvallis without building a larger senior center.